My dad called me 2 hours ago saying he wanted to just sell everything…
I told him:
“Watch the bounce, but if your mind tells you it’s going back down just take out your principal, and let your profits ride.”
Not bad advice to anyone ever once they are up big. My fear is long term saying “I could have had hundreds of ETH, and I didn’t just hold it.”
But for my dad being retired and not knowledgeable about crypto it’s more like play money for him, so I said sure he’s not trying to earn his fortune this way. If he missed out on the BTC & ETH fortune it’s not a big deal for him. I have the family fortune in my hands.
This is the 2nd or 3rd call like this from him though. I’ve said each time we aren’t there yet and confidently. This time I said ok I got him a free ride on profits alone. He’s more than doubled up. Let him have his peace of mind.
I also want this for myself. Take out my original USD investment. Pay off my debts. And have some money to invest in forming the fund.
But the thing is I know it will never go back down to last March of 2020 where I got in and my crypto holdings will only be diluted into less ETH of wealth.
Nick and I have that vision. ETH is the measure (the yardstick) of my wealth not the short term USD value the world puts on it.
Even so, some of my money should be put to use taking advantage of the higher probabilities short term. What is the better more likely scenario this week? That is what I need to decide for some portion of my funds.
Will the market go back up again?
Yes.
When it does I do want to just pay down my debt and get more conservative. There was a time when I sold alts and ETH for BTC (this year, the last time it was at 30k). At the time I did it Nick said it was wrong at first but changed to a BTC bull a week or so later. Nick believed BTC would up outperform ETH for a short time (and it did).
Here is my view:
All of these cryptos are commodities and they will go in cycles or in favor or out of favor with the market. I don’t believe BTC is a pet rock. I didn’t ever believe the other main alts were crap either. At the same time I do believe there are more bullish things about ETH than BTC and so that has been the idea to hold ETH for the most part but I do swing that balance based on a historical range of that exchange rate. I’ve given Cody (and myself) great timing in these trades.
Not knowing if this may be a bear market or just a correction is where I think we need to be as a mindset but at the same time I’m bullish as hell long term. Long term I think it’s a landslide victory for alts over BTC and longer term (5 years) I wonder how much ETH dominance will get carved up. I see other blockchains as superior to both BTC and ETH from a (fast working, low fee, tech) perspective. However I know that ETH is the king from a (# of businesses developed) perspective — and that has typically dominated shorter term investment wins.
I also know tech can change and the moat and first mover advantage and network effect of ETH is powerful and don’t know if AVAX et al can get that to the extent ETH does.
How can AVAX make money for the protocol when fees are super low?
Can ETH change its tech / code to make the blockchain more scalable? Yes but will it? Should it?
Perhaps ETH has certain qualities it wants to maintain and thus chooses not to make that trade off.
Can AVAX and Fantom maintain their speed if they were as big as ETH? Easy to look fast when you have very low traffic.
I’m not a software expert, but I feel answering these questions requires really understanding the underlying blockchains code and software. I do not know it from a computer science perspective. I do know quite a bit about them from a statistic and market technical standpoint, but I have read many computer developers perspectives.
Many, like I, see a future of many blockchains and interoperability cross chains with bridges and oracles connecting everything.
This is my vision:
They, like I, see a future of many blockchains and interoperability cross chains with bridges and oracles connecting everything.
That seems more like how the real world is. We build it then connect it. That’s how foreign exchange / fiat works. The dollar has had a long slow battle to be king (and is dying a long slow death). The FOREX markets never feared a USD maximalism scenario, even as a reserve currency. Not all fiats were killed by the dollar. We don’t see that typically in most systems.
So I see a future in crypto where all these alts (the good ones not ghost chains) are around and they thrive and Alt coin investing is about identifying growing ecosystems and protocols that build powerful and useful applications.
What made mac better than pc is that it had better apps and better operating system. It just worked.
Pc still survived though because people hate learning new things and changing. It will likely be this way in crypto.
In stocks there are always new companies and new tech and those new stocks sometimes are the best investments. Also it’s usually true that the most obvious best investment is typically a great investment. (Apple 10 years ago was obviously a great investment). It wasn’t so obvious 20 year’s ago.
ETH is like that I have a feeling. DOT is also sort of like that but still most normal people don’t even know about it.
KSM is not like that but we know it is.
The others in our portfolio are sort of like gems that although known by crypto people are completely unknown to the masses. This is what gives me confidence, supreme confidence. We — our fund — can do things on-chain and know how to find coins that even are not listed on any DEX yet, let alone listed on Coinbase or Binance. Many of our coins are still not on those exchanges or only available on Kraken.
Think how new this all is. Yes I think I’m ok with “losing a lot of money” in the short run because I see that what the market has done for our ideas is prove them right.
The market is getting much harder to anticipate. Last March it was much easier to know this is the moment to stake my future on, but even then I didn’t know how low it would go.
Now it is the same. For those of you with cash outside this market I’m torn I think there could be maybe a better time, MAYBE… but it’s also maybe this 50% dip is a great chance to get some still decently low ETH and some crazy deals on alts.
The present has obviously chosen that barring a central bank war with crypto it’s here to stay.
How much of your ETH and BTC wealth (your wealth in USD divided by the price of BTC and ETH) can you stand to see evaporate because you still feel like it’s high? I don’t know. It’s the exact scenario I wanted to avoid which is why in December I made that urgent call to everyone.
What I will invest in is the long term future I painted above. I am glad it came down and I’ll be even happier if it gets really bad because then I’ll be one step closer to a secured new higher low. Once it gets really bad and then comes up to highs one more time, we won’t have to worry about it ever again.
That future is ours right now. It’s within reach. We can secure it by a hodl and outperform the market a bit with some short term cash and our trading, but most great investors never try to avoid crashes, they just invest in the best companies.
We do know right now what those are. So that I think is the way to move forward.
