Seems like ETH couldn’t get below $3,000 and looking at green 1 day results turned me.
I thought this yesterday too as I made our balance sheets and by the time I was done they were higher. That is when the idea first occurred to me and this was another confirming intuition today. I realized I was turning bullish.
Trader chat comments on 1/12
Size of Catalyst
I just turned bullish, I think there just isn’t enough catalyst for a bear market. (There needs to be a COVID or an Evergrade or a major catalyst). Fed tapering is important and I should measure it but it doesn’t seem big to me from a feeling standpoint. Don’t fight the fed is real but the fed is still net printing even if they are tapering how much they print. This needs to be looked at more and numbers gathered. I would not consider my opinion to be research it’s just how I feel right now.
Surprise Element of Catalyst
Typically the surprise aspect of a catalyst is what triggers a panic sell off which then serves to be irreversible sentiment as people have a sudden and then justified verification that since there was a crash — we are now in a bear market.
It seems to me we had a sell off not a crash and so today I became bullish and believe we might be at the bottom of the correction, not a bear market.
I believe this would be bottom of wave 4 of the breakout 5 wave after BTC broke out of 20k Nov of 2020 I believe it was. Whenever thr 20k breakout occurred that was the bottom of bitcoin and the total crypto market cap. We should never see that again.
So according to Elliot wave —> 3 bull waves (1,3,5) 2 bear waves (2,4)
Wave 1 — Nov-May
Wave 2 — May-July
Wave 3 — July-Oct
Wave 4 — Oct — Dec
Wave 5 — Jan — ?
Wave 1 and 5 are typically the biggest waves if I remember correctly.
What would the biggest hyped areas of this next era? Well not the topic for this piece but I am interested in this…
ETH is 3200 right now — this was an area of support and resistance before. It’s where I first sold half of my ETH when I felt a place of lowest upside risk was before.
Overall, I’m writing this from a place of feeling and intuition not analysis. I have not done full due diligence at this point to see if 5 waves already happened just recalling what I experienced of waves of gains and losses. And reflecting on my experience of the credit crisis in 2008, also the experience of the top of the last crypto cycle in 2018 — it was a much bigger blow off top to crush the high when it ended it felt more like what happened in May with Elon on SNL that type of crashing didn’t happen. This was a 3- month slow decline. So the power behind it has not been the same as what I think it needs to be to be the real top without a surprise bear event other than just high prices. Jan 2018 was also the BTC futures markets came out and that was a catalyst. Those guys didn’t even understand BTC back then so you had all these big money traders short it as soon as they could because they knew it was a huge bubble. So did I that’s why I never got involved with it in 2017. I knew I was late. I was focused on still earning what would become my trading stack selling solar.
So this seems like it might be the last great time to get into crypto but we will plan to de-risk and hedge the portfolio after 3 months and as we see candle stick formations that are doji or other toppish wicking on the 6-month eth chart.
